People often see cryptocurrencies only as technology and compare its adoption with the historical adoption of other technologies. As you can see in the picture bellow adoption of smartphones was much faster than the adoption of cars. So adoption is faster and faster as the whole society runs on.

However, I think that the adoption of cryptocurrencies will be very different than with common technologies. Let’s consider an example with the adoption of a cell phone. If you adopt a cell phone after two years after your neighbor than you can buy a newer and better model and pay less money for it than your neighbor had to pay two years ago. So you have better technology for less money and your neighbor will probably buy a newer model as well soon (throwing away the older model). Notice that if you postpone adoption then conditions are better for you.

It is vice versa with cryptocurrencies. Early-adopters were able to buy a lot of coins of bitcoins for less money than now newcomers might buy for the same money. So newcomers are able to buy fewer and fewer coins as the price goes up. The rising price makes it difficult for newcomers to adopt technology. Volatility is a big enemy and people will not adopt a volatile asset if there will be another option. A stable coin would be much easier to adopt.

It will not be easy to achieve mass adoption of Bitcoin and it cannot ever happen despite the fact that the price will be very high. Banks and institutions will probably buy the majority of coins before the majority of people will manage to adopt it. Thus there will be a few new millionaires and a few banks owning Bitcoin. The question is what will be a benefit for people. Will Bitcoin be rather a speculative asset for bankers or digital money for the population? The first is more probable.

It is not correct to show people the chart above and claim that the adoption of Bitcoin will be the same as the adoption of a cell phone.

Is the price speculation real adoption?

The question is whether price speculation is real adoption. It is not. Bitcoin is a great speculative and volatile asset. The market is not mature so it can be easily manipulated. A lot of bitcoin coins sit only on a few addresses. There are big whales waiting till the price goes up to dump the market. Noobs might lose a lot of money. It is quite easy for whales to pump and dump the price and we can often see it. It has already a name. Bart’s head.