Bitcoin 

BTC

$16,930

 held $20,000 into Oct. 5 with trader targets still including a fresh high before rejection.

$21,000 upside target to precede new lows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $20,470 on Bitstamp overnight before returning lower.

The pair succeeded in maintaining the 2017 old all-time high as support, something on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators had hoped would endure as a positive sign.

“BTC is still in a congested range,” it summarized in comments the day prior:

“The retest of technical resistance at the 50-Day MA was rejected. Now I want to see a retest of support at the 2017 Top. Bulls may be losing momentum, but placed a buy wall at $20k to hold price up.”

Material Indicators was analyzing a chart of the Binance BTC/USD order book showing investor behavior involving different-sized transactions.

It referred to its 50-day moving average (MA), which at $20,170 had still not flipped to decisive support on the day.

Popular trader Il Capo of Crypto, meanwhile, continued an extant thesis involving a trip to $21,000 before a steeper more enduring comedown.

“Local top is not in yet imo, but it’s very very close,” he told Twitter followers:

“20500-21000 hasn’t been touched and there’s no ltf distribution. Expecting the last leg up soon. Then ltf bearish signs, and reversal to new lows (14k-16k).”

Signs of good times ending for U.S. dollar

Turning to the United States dollar index (DXY), a key macro trigger for crypto markets, there was some relief on the horizon.

Related: BTC price still not at ‘max pain’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

A fresh 20-year high was still due, according to Il Capo of Crypto, but this would be followed by a longer-term break of the “parabola” in place on dollar strength since 2021.

“We could see a push deeper into the box giving BTC/SPX more time to rally,” fellow trader Mayne explained in an accompanying thread, also mentioning the S&P 500.

“If this area fails, we could see a break in the dollar’s parabolic ascent and perhaps a much longer sustained rally.”

The DXY circled 110.6 points at the time of writing, having narrowly preserved 110 as support — still marking its lowest levels since Sept. 21.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.