While the mortgage rate you’ll get is determined by specific factors like your credit score, historical mortgage rate trends can give you a sense of how economic conditions influence the rates available on the market today. From the 1970s to present, mortgage rates have risen and fallen, with the current 30-year fixed rate still low, but on the rise.

“After spiking to near 20 percent levels in the early 1980s, mortgage rates — as with interest rates in general — were largely in decline for the better part of the next 40 years as inflation declined and became a non-factor,” says Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate. “Mortgage rates bottomed out in 2020 amid the pandemic-induced recession.”

Historical mortgage rates

Overall, the annual average 30-year mortgage rate has trended downward since 1972, according to data from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Mortgage rate trends in the 1970s

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage started off the decade at about 7.3 percent in 1971, according to Freddie Mac. By the end of 1979, in a time of heightening inflation, that rate rose to 12.9 percent. While inflation doesn’t directly influence mortgage rates, if it rises too fast and wages don’t keep up, borrowers have less purchasing power overall.

Mortgage rate trends in the 1980s

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached a pinnacle of 18.4 percent in October 1981, according to Freddie Mac, seesawing down to the 9 percent range by 1986 and closing the decade at 9.78 percent. The 1970s oil embargo against the U.S., which drove up inflation quickly, contributed to the increased borrowing costs.

Mortgage rate trends in the 1990s

The 1990s saw a dramatic shift in the 30-year rate’s movement, as it plunged to an average of 6.91 percent in 1998, according to Bankrate data. This was spurred by the dot-com bubble, an era when investors rushed to buy stocks from technology companies that were overvalued. When these stocks plummeted, investors turned their focus to fixed-income investments, such as bonds. As bond prices rose and yields fell, mortgage rates, which follow the 10-year Treasury yield, also declined.

Mortgage rate trends in the 2000s

The 30-year rate took another tumble in the latter half of the 2000s when the housing market crashed due to the prevalence of subprime loans. According to Bankrate’s data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped from about 8 percent at the start of the decade down to 5.4 percent by 2009, when the Federal Reserve implemented quantitative easing, buying mortgage bonds in bulk to drive down interest rates and usher in an economic recovery.

Mortgage rate trends in the 2010s

The 2010s witnessed the 30-year mortgage rate continue to trend downward, beginning in the 4 percent range, dipping under the 4 percent mark and then ending the decade back in that range, Bankrate data shows. These rates were brought on in part by the Federal Reserve’s pull-back on bond-buying.

Mortgage rates in the 2020s

2020 saw new lows for mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate diving to just under 3 percent, according to Bankrate data, and averaging 3.38 percent for the year. Amid the pandemic, fearful investors were attracted to safer products such as Treasury and mortgage bonds, pushing yields — and rates — lower.