Now, there could be another side to the BTC price movement. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Tomáš Hančar, BTC is close to hitting the bottom—he cited that it’s one-third almost at it.

How has this happened?

Based on the analysis by Hančar, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has spent three months at neutral levels. 

Hančar continued by pointing out that the Long Term Holders (LTH) output profit ratio within the 20 SMA revealed that the bottom suggested a one-third reach. He mentioned that the situation was likely to the 2018/2019 bear-bull market switch. Hančar said, 

“As far as the indicator’s 20 day MA smoothing line in technical terms is concerned, between 10th and 14th july we’ve seen what looks to be a bounce off of 2020 actual LTH SOPR low, coincidentally not too far off the 0.49 level, which represented the very lows of both 2015 as well as 2018/2019 cyclical bottoms”

While the analysis might have suggested that investors can start buying, Hančar emphasized the need to be cautious. He noted that it was possible to see another fall below $20,000 before a guaranteed uptick above it.

Who else agrees?

Earlier, Glassnode suggested that the bear market was not entirely over. So are other indicators in synchronization with Hančar’s projections?

According to the BTC chart, the current market was still neutral as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in blue and 50 EMA (yellow) were at almost the same level. With this trend, short-term traders may want to observe where the next BTC moves. 

Source: TradingView

In the longer time frame, the 200 EMA (cyan) showed signs of an uptrend and maintained a position only below the BTC price of $22,500. This position may mean Hančar’s BTC price prediction could be a reality. 

At press time, BTC was trading at 23,176 as per CoinMarketCap. With a 1.09% uptick, buying more BTC could be risky as long-term investors’ preference to wait and observe could pay off.