Ethereum’s native token, Ether 

, eyes a strong bullish reversal after losing 25% from its November high of $1,675, according to a bottom fractal spotted by independent market analyst Wolf.

 

Can Ethereum price compare its March 2020 fractal?  

Wolf compares Ethereum’s multi-month downtrend between May 2018 and March 2020 with a similar but relatively shorter correction after July 2022. If the move repeats, that means the price of Ether has bottomed in November 2022, according to the analyst, as shown below.

ETH/USD 2019-20 and 2022 price performance comparison. Source: TradingView/Wolf

Wolf draws cues from March 2020’s Ethereum price crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic — a black swan event. Similarly, ETH price was pushed down in November 2022 due to another black swan — the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

But ETH/USD rebounded aggressively after the March 2020 crash, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts that injected more money into the economy, part of which flowed into the crypto market.

Similarly, in November 2022, Ether’s modest recovery post-FTX “black swan” coincides with growing expectations of the Fed slowing its rate hikes. Thus, Ether has a good chance of repeating the March 2020 fractal to new monthly highs.

Moreover, independent market analyst Cold Blood Shiller sees a “clear breakout point” on Ethereum’s daily chart, namely its Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Relative Strength Index (RSI). Both indicators appear to have been flipping bullish recently, as shown below.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView/Cold Blood Shiller

Bears anticipate ETH losing another 50%

Nevertheless, Ether is currently down 75% from its record in November 2021, with the market seeing multiple bull traps since. 

Market analyst Aditya Siddhartha Roy notes the possible formation of a similar bull trap in the current mini uptrend, which he argues risks exhaustion near a multi-month descending resistance trendline.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView/Aditya Siddhartha Roy

A decisive pullback from the descending trendline would push Ether toward $700, which may be a “possible bottom,” Roy explains. 

Related: Ethereum derivatives look bearish, but traders believe the ETH bottom is in

Roy’s analysis aligns with Ethereum’s symmetrical triangle setup, best visible on its longer-timeframe chart shown below, whose technical downside target is around $675.

ETH/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, the ETH/USD pair is still at risk of dropping another 50% in early 2023.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.